How PDP Lost Karim I Bye-Election

 

The ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Taraba State suffered a shocking defeat in the just concluded Karim Lamido I State Constituency bye-election, as the All Progressives Congress, APC, snatched victory in what has been described as one of the most fiercely contested polls in the history of the constituency.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, declared the APC candidate, Abner Shittu Dabho, winner after he secured 5,895 votes to defeat PDP's Ali Kanda, who polled 5,488. The African Democratic Congress, ADC, candidate, Dr. Badina Garba, came third with 1,774 votes, while the Social Democratic Party, SDP, finished a distant fourth with 149 votes. The margin of victory was only 407 votes, but enough to give APC a rare win in a constituency traditionally dominated by the PDP.

The election, held across five wards in the constituency, was marred by allegations of manipulation and cancellations in four polling units with 3,917 registered voters. Yet, the outcome reflected deep shifts in voter loyalty and the influence of tribal sentiments. In Karim A ward, APC secured 1,325 votes against PDP's 1,221. In Bikwin, PDP recorded its strongest performance with 1,963 votes, while APC managed 503. But the Jenjo wards swung heavily to the APC. In Jen Ardido, the APC polled 1,828 against PDP's 630, while in Jen Kaigama, APC had 1,747 against PDP's 1,201. The most dramatic scene was in Karim B, where PDP scored 473 and APC 492, but ADC stunned observers with 803 votes.

APC fielded a candidate from the majority clan, while PDP's flagbearer came from a minority, in a contest driven by numbers, PDP started on the wrong footing. PDP stakeholders sidelined many aspirants with mass appeal, alienating the grassroots. The choice of candidate widened internal cracks that APC smartly exploited.

Governor Agbu Kefas might have gone into the election banking on his heavy political appointments from Karim Lamido to deliver victory. His Chief of Staff, Auditor-General, top civil servants and two commissioners hail from the local government.

Rather than strengthen the party's chances, the election exposed growing cracks. The Karimjo community, once a dependable PDP bloc, openly revolted. Their anger stemmed from what they described as marginalisation and betrayal, particularly the case of Mr. Liberty Andrew, whose name was removed from a Permanent Secretary promotion list and replaced with a another nominee. The Governor's approval of the change without inquiry deepened resentment, with many voters seeing it as confirmation of their exclusion.

The ADC candidate, Dr. Badina Garba, himself a Karimjo son, harvested this discontent and polled nearly 2,000 votes. His candidacy was largely interpreted as a protest against the PDP's unfulfilled promise of a Karimjo chiefdom, which community leaders allege was frustrated by powerful figures around the Governor.

Even more shocking was the defection of the Jenjo vote to the APC. Despite the Jenjo producing two commissioners in Kefas' government, the wards voted massively for the opposition. The outcome reinforced a perception that the PDP is losing touch with the grassroots despite the pomp of government tours across the 16 local governments.

But perhaps the biggest factor in PDP's collapse was the resignation of Hon. Mike Dio, who vacated the Karim I Assembly seat to accept a commissioner role. His departure triggered the bye-election and bred resentment among constituents who accused him of abandoning their mandate for personal ambition. During the bye-election, he could not even deliver his polling unit to PDP. Many within the party now believe that Dio  should shoulders the bulk of the blame, with some voices insisting that accountability demands his resignation from the cabinet.

For the APC, the win has been described as more than just a seat; it is a sign of momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections. Party leaders hailed the victory as proof that Tarabans are disenchanted with PDP's politics of appointments without results. Former Acting Governor, Senator Sani Abubakar Danladi, who coordinated the APC campaign, described the win as a litmus test, declaring that the ruling party's dominance in Taraba is gradually waning.

For the PDP and Governor Kefas, the message is clear. The Karim I bye-election is not just a defeat but a warning. Unless the grievances of communities like Karimjo, Bikwin and Jenjo are urgently addressed, the shock of Saturday's narrow loss may be only a dress rehearsal for a larger upset in 2027.